US Soldier Charged Over $400K Bet Linked to Maduro Operation

The United States Department of Justice has filed criminal charges against an active-duty soldier accused of using classified military intelligence to profit from bets tied to the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Prosecutors on Thursday identified the suspect as 38-year-old Gannon Ken Van Dyke, alleging he earned more than $400,000 by wagering on developments surrounding the operation. Authorities say he placed at least 13 bets on the prediction platform Polymarket, speculating on issues such as a potential US “invasion” of Venezuela and the timing of Maduro’s removal from power.

Officials described the case as a serious violation of public trust. “Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly betrayed his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain,” said FBI Assistant Director James C. Barnacle Jr.

Van Dyke faces multiple charges, including three counts under the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud, and one count of conducting an unlawful financial transaction. If convicted, he could face up to 10 years in prison on each commodities-related charge, while the wire fraud count carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.

The case also highlights growing scrutiny around prediction markets—online platforms where users bet on real-world events. These platforms have expanded significantly in recent years, particularly during Donald Trump’s second presidency, with some administration allies maintaining links to the industry.

Concerns have intensified over the potential for insider trading, as critics warn that individuals with privileged information could exploit such platforms. Suspicious betting activity surrounding the January 3, 2026, US military operation in Venezuela had already drawn attention, with reports of a “mystery trader” making substantial gains.

According to the indictment, Van Dyke—stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina—opened a Polymarket account in late December 2025 using a VPN to mask his location. Within days, he allegedly began placing bets informed by classified intelligence related to the operation, known as “Operation Absolute Resolve.”

His wagers increased significantly as the operation approached, including thousands of dollars placed on scenarios involving Maduro’s removal and US military action. The operation was launched in the early hours of January 3, resulting in Maduro’s capture and the deaths of dozens of individuals.

Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke had direct involvement in planning and executing the mission and possessed sensitive, nonpublic information at the time of his bets. After securing substantial profits, he reportedly transferred funds to a foreign cryptocurrency account and later sought to delete his Polymarket profile.

The indictment comes amid broader regulatory attention on the sector. Just a day earlier, another prediction platform, Kalshi, announced disciplinary action against three users accused of betting on races in which they were candidates during the 2026 US midterm elections.